Nothing in my years of DC operations prepared me for a number like this: the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil and 20% of global LNG flows — is operating at roughly 5% of normal vessel traffic as of today.

The US-Israel war on Iran began February 28. By March 4, Iran declared the strait closed. What followed was a cascade that has touched every supply chain metric on this dashboard simultaneously, in the same direction, all at once. That almost never happens. When it does, the operational implications are severe and non-obvious.

The diesel number is the one DC managers need to internalize first. EIA clocked $5.35/gallon this week — up from $3.66 at year-end 2025. Run that through a standard carrier fuel surcharge table: at $5.35 diesel, you're paying roughly $0.69/mile in fuel surcharges alone. On a 1,000-mile lane, that's $690 per load on top of base linehaul — nearly double what it was four months ago. If your freight budget was built on 2025 actuals, you are already significantly underwater and your finance team may not know it yet.

The FBX global composite at $2,282 looks deceptively calm. But that headline number masks a critical divergence: trans-Pacific rates are actually softening (Asia-USWC down 10% week-over-week to $2,418) while air cargo rates are spiking hard. The reason: Gulf-region exporters are shut out of normal sea routing, driving emergency air freight that's pushed Asia-to-North America air rates to an estimated $7+ per kilo — 42% above year-ago levels.

For USWC importers, the softening ocean spot market is a genuine opportunity. Vessel capacity that would normally be tied up on Gulf routing is available. If you have Q3 orders that can be pulled forward, this is a window. It will not last once the strait reopens and pent-up Gulf cargo floods the market.

The PMI story has completely flipped from last month. The US Manufacturing PMI flash for April hit 54.0 — a 3-year high — but driven entirely by safety stock panic-buying, not end demand. Germany reversed back to 48.8 in contraction. The Eurozone composite fell to 48.6, a 17-month low. Europe's brief expansion was exactly the bullwhip setup I flagged last month: fear-driven orders that are now being cancelled as energy costs bite into margins.

Next edition: I'll break down what the Dubai Jebel Ali port dwell time explosion (nearly 10 days, up from 3) means for any importer with Gulf-origin suppliers — and which alternative routing options are actually viable right now versus which ones are myths.